HEALTH CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND GOVERNMENTS ACCELERATE THE REOPENING PROCESS

Since July, Brazil has been recording improving results in the fight against the pandemic. Decreasing numbers of deaths, cases and hospitalizations associated with the vaccination campaign brought confidence to politicians, who started to drop the measures adopted against Covid. Even though this reopening process can help the economy, based on foreign examples, experts warn that rushed decisions to suspend preventive measures, such as masks, may lead to setbacks.

THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE COUNTRY’S HEALTH CONDITIONS

Following the advance of the vaccination campaign, Brazil’s health scenario has been improving significantly, indicating relevant progress over the pandemic. The results of this change have been observed through several indicators, such as the number of cases, deaths and hospital occupation rates.

According to the Health Secretaries National Council (Conass), September had the smallest number of deaths and Covid cases in 2021. A study from the Universidade Federal de Viçosa revealed that in that month, 58% of Brazilian cities had no deaths of patients with Covid-19, the best result since May 2020.

Another factor improving nationwide is the intensive care unit occupation (ICU) rate. In one of the last reports disclosed by Fiocruz, on October 15^th, almost the entire country was under the lowest level of risk in terms of ICU beds occupation rate. Except for the Federal District (DF) and Espírito Santo state, all other states had less than 50% of their Covid ICU beds for adults occupied. For example, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo recorded respectively 44% and 30% of their beds occupied.

As vaccines can reduce symptomatic cases, hospitalizations and deaths, many specialists attribute the improvement of the factors above to the progress of the vaccination campaign. Until the 27/10/2021, Brazil managed to fully vaccinate 118,28 million people against Covid-19, which represents 55,27% of the population.

THE REOPENING PROCESS

The reopening process had already started in the 1^st semester, with several cities across the country relaxing restrictions. Many allowed indoors and outdoors facilities to increase their capacities and their operational period.

Motivated by even more positive results and the increase in vaccinations, governors and mayors started to accelerate the reopening. For instance, in October, São Paulo and Belo Horizonte authorized full capacity in cultural venues. Rio de Janeiro city allowed test events with agglomerations, and it allowed theatres, cinemas, malls and events to operate with maximum capacity. In addition, Rio lifted the mandatory use of masks in open spaces. Finally, some locations have announced that they will soon suspend the vaccine passport.

POSSIBLE RELIEF TO THE ECONOMY AND POTENTIAL INCREASE IN CRIMES

The improvement of the health conditions and the reopening process will likely bring gradual relief to the economy. Economists state that entrepreneurs will be more confident to invest, and many, now able to operate with full capacity, can hire more, reducing unemployment.

However, in terms of security, the economy’s reactivation may increase crime rates in urban centres. For instance, according to the Public Security Institute (ISP), in Rio de Janeiro state, from April to August – when restrictions began to be eased–monthly cases of vehicle robberies increased compared to the same months from 2020. Local authorities declared that this was already expected, since during the worst periods of the pandemic, there was a great reduction in the circulation of goods and people and a subsequent fall in cases.

WHAT LIES AHEAD

Even though the reopening process can boost the much-needed economic recovery, some specialists have warned authorities about the high risks of premature decisions. They state that, despite the results achieved through vaccination, it must be associated with other measures: masks, social distancing, vaccine passports, among others. According to Fiocruz, the decision to suspend these procedures on July 19th explains why England is recording increasing daily numbers of deaths and cases. On the other hand, the foundation states that France, Germany and others are not in the same situation, because they did not rely exclusively on vaccination and maintained the additional measures against the pandemic.

Experts believe that, for the moment, there is no other way. The emergence of new variants and the gradual reopening of the economy should lead us to live with Covid-19. Thus, vaccination will have to continue associated with other measures until it is possible to attest to the low risk of coronavirus transmission and the control of the strains.